文章利用中国宏观资本流动和微观金融市场交易数据，使用3种计量经济学方法定量研究中国资本项目管制的有效性，核心观点为上海自贸区建立后中国的资本管制程度得到放松，有利于推进中国资本账户开放（NBER Working Paper 20901）。
ABSTRACT: In this paper we present evidence as to the effects of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone(SPFTZ) on China’s capital controls. The start of the SPFTZ in September, 2013 was a trial to introducea combination of exchange rate floating and capital account liberalization into China’s macro policymix. We employ three methods to test the SPFTZ’s impact on capital controls: price spread tests betweenCNH and CNY, RMB yield gaps between onshore and offshore RMB markets, and Granger causalitiesamong China’s money supply and the foreign interest rates. All these tests give consistent results suggesting that the impact of China’s capital controls is weaker since the SPFTZ.
w20901_An Evaluation of the Impact of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone.pdf
